Wednesday, April 9, 2008

IMF annual reporting.

The U.S. economy will end the year mired in recession before mounting only a weak recovery in 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF has sharply lowered its growth forecasts for both the U.S. and global economies. The fund now predicts that the U.S. economy, hobbled by fallout from the housing market collapse, will grow at a barely perceptible annual rate of 0.5% this year and 0.6% in 2009.
All major components of domestic demand will be sickly in 2008," the report said.
The IMF forecast painted a sober portrait of a global economy struggling to shake off "the largest financial shock since the Great Depression." After five years of robust global growth, the fund predicts world growth will slow to an annual rate of 3.7% this year.
The global outlook is at risk from "financial strains" that could prove deeper than expected. The IMF says there is already a 1-in-4 chance of a worldwide recession, which the fund defines as growth below an annual rate of 3%. That last happened in 2002 as the U.S. was suffering through a sharp slowdown following the collapse of a speculative bubble in technology stocks.
In the USA, consumers will remain under pressure this year amid continued financial market turmoil and home price declines. By the end of 2008, house prices in the USA will have fallen 14% to 22%, the fund says.
As the U.S. clears away its housing and financial market wreckage, the sluggish economy will take a toll on jobseekers. The IMF expects the unemployment rate, currently 5.1%, will reach 6.3% in 2009.
The fund applauded recent actions by the Federal Reserve aimed at containing the crisis. But it said the Fed, which already has cut its benchmark interest rate by 3 percentage points since September, may need to continue cutting rates for some time. It said policymakers also may be forced to take more drastic steps, including using taxpayer money to support the U.S. housing market.
To reduce the risk of greater turmoil, banks need to quickly write off their losses and seek new capital, including from foreign government-backed investors known as sovereign wealth funds. Policymakers should draw up contingency plans to prevent "fire sales of impaired assets" from fueling a longer market crash, the IMF says.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,09/04/08.

The opening bell bulls:-in response to a report from The Wall Street Journal that Citigroup (C 23.58, -0.18) is close to selling $12 billion in leveraged loans and bonds to a group of private equity players. Investor sentiment remains largely depressed in afternoon trading.
Oil has hit a new intraday high of $112.15 per barrel and United Parcel Service Inc slashed its earnings forecast has caused the market spanking.
The closing bell candlestick:- inverted bullish hammer on the back of a Morning Star .

Week open High.Mid-week (Pivot Day) has established its low.What's next....retracing back to MAV and close the week on higher note.Not much of major economic news movers in the next two days except for jobless claims & international trade on Thursday.
Maybe General Electric(GE) quarterly reporting on earnings will provide another booster.