Sunday, August 29, 2010

Annual mountainside conference.

It has been an annual affairs that Central bank officials from more than 35 countries usually travel to the Jackson Lake Lodge, elevation about 6,900 feet (2,103 meters), to mingle with leading monetary policy makers and thinkers.
A week prior to this grand event,the US market will normally crash and this time around Asian markets defy this American tricks and go against the trend.
Between debates over new research and crisis management under chandeliers, attendees take hiking and rafting excursions in Grand Teton National Park.
This year's gathering centers on the theme, "Macroeconomic Challenges: The Decade Ahead." Bernanke and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet are the focussing speakers.
Three key crisis management approach by the Federal Reserve:-
1) substantial easing of monetary policy despite inflationary pressure.
2) Offer liquidity to support financial markets through collateralized lending programs.
3) regulators to monitor the health of individual financial instituitions and developing new regulations
Tracking the Dow,Friday.Asian index futures contracts rollover.
9:30am:--A bullish 50.0 points gap up.The Commerce Department made a smaller-than-expected cut in its estimate of second-quarter economic growth.
10:30am:--Earlier pullback to find an early low has now retraced to near session high. Second-quarter growth in the U.S. economy comes in at 1.6% -- not as bad as economists and investors had feared.
11:30am:--A new session high,spinning top.Consumer confidence rises slightly in August but still remains weak.
12:30noon:--Consolidation time.Bearish hammer.
1:30pm:--After pulling back to bull support pivot,three ascending soldiers seen.
2:30pm:--Bulls bringing it higher.Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the central bank would not sit idly and let the U.S. economy sink into a period of deflation.
3:30pm:--After digesting the Fed's news,a slight pullback but the bulls are still supporting it.
4:00pm:--A new high of the day closing.Consumer confidence rises slightly in August but still remains weak.
Looks like every quarter there'll be threatening news so that a trough formation depicting the head and shoulder pattern can be materialised.
The beginning of July was a bull party and towards the end of the third month comes the shorties.
Friday is a bullish spin and a rebound is on the card aided by the Fed who has just open his mouth.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Reducing treasury debt holding.

China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt for a second straight month in June while the holdings of Japan and Britain rose.
China's holdings fell by $24 billion to $843.7 billion, a decline of 2.7 percent, the Treasury Department said Monday in a monthly report on debt holdings.
Total foreign holdings of Treasury securities rose $45.6 billion to a total of $4 trillion, an increase of 1.2 percent.
A drop in foreign demand would lead to higher interest rates in the United States. The yield on Treasuries rises when fewer people invest in them
It would start with the U.S. government paying more interest on its $13.3 trillion national debt and then ripple through the economy. Consumer loans such as home mortgages and auto loans track the yields on Treasurys, so they could rise, too.
China is the largest foreign holder of Treasury securities. The $24 billion decline in China's holdings in June followed a $32.5 billion drop in May. China's holdings had hit a high for this year of $900.2 billion in April.
There are concerns that China could influence U.S. interest rates by rapidly selling off its holdings of U.S. debt. That could lead others to dump their holdings and result in a spike in interest rates.
The Dow Friday is Index/Options Expiry Day.
9:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down.Economic jitters.
10:30am:--Shooting star near hourly bottom.Weak data on the jobs market and regional manufacturing reignited fears about the economic recovery.
11:30am:--Bearish engulfing.The market had focused too much on short-term jobs numbers.
12:30noon:--Bullish engulfing.The usual mid-afternoon technical rebound.
1:30pm:--Inverted hammer.
2:30pm:--Bullish engulfing near the MAV resistance line.
3:30pm:--Bullish inverted hammer holding above the MAV support.M&A news as an excuse for late-day buying.
4:00pm:--A small inverted bull.
A correction on Index/Options futures expiry day.The pullback tapers off at the low of the month. The overall mood of a market is worried about a weakening economy. There are no economic releases scheduled for Friday and the earnings calendar is relatively light.Earlier on the beginning of the month,despite all the negative economic news,the Dow still maintain its push into the positive territory.After the FOMC announcement,the slide begins.This is also a blessing in disguise for the Fed Reserve to unload their Citigroup shares in a staggering manner.They still have a lot to go and will pump in more bad news as they have their deadline to meet.