Wednesday, September 30, 2009

The Padang earthquake

Padang the capital city of Provinsi Sumatera Barat (western Sumatra) ,Republik Indonesia,which faces the Indian Ocean was today rocked by a powerful 7.6 magnitude earthquake.
The fifth largest island in the world, Sumatra like Indonesia as a whole, has an incredibly diverse range of peoples and cultures.
Most tropical of all the islands in the country, Sumatra is located in the North Western corner of Indonesia. It has richest wildlife in entire Indonesia leading many people to describe it as "Africa of Asia". Sri Vijaya empire, which was the first Hindu kingdom in Indonesia had their capital in Sumatra as early as 7th century AD. With large rivers, great flora and fauna, sunny beaches, and a great history, Sumatra is a complete tourist destination.
The first European to visit Sumatra was Marco Polo, who was there briefly Bc.1292. Following the Portuguese, who came in 1509, the Dutch arrived in 1596 and gradually gained control of all the native states including Achin. The British had brief control over parts of the island in the late 18th and early 19th century. The Achinese (Acehnese) launched a rebellion in 1873 and were not subdued by the Dutch until 1904. In World War II, Japanese troops landed (Feb., 1942) in Sumatra and occupied it throughout the war.
Tracking the Dow,30/09/09.(Pivot Day of Sept Index futures)
Asian Futures :Expire today.

9:30am:--Bearish Harami.
10:30am:--3 black crows end with morning star.
Second quarter GDP fell an annualized 0.7%, which is better than the 1.2% expectations.
11:30am:--Retracement to MAV resistance falls short.
A disappointing ADP Employment Change Report for September is halting the market.
12:30noon:--Inverted hammer pierced thru the MAV.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for September came in at 46.1, below the 52.0 expected and down from the 50.0 that was registered in August.
1:30pm:--After lunch session start near day's opening high with shooting stars.
Crude oil prices are up 4.2% to $69.50 per barrel.
2:30pm:--Bearish spin within upper shadow.
With the end of the quarter at hand, investors and portfolio managers drove trading volume in the NYSE sharply higher as they juggled their portfolios.
3:30pm:--A pullback to MAV support with bullish engulfing.
Better-than-expected earnings from several companies, including Nike (NKE 64.70, +4.61) are helping the undercurrent.
4:00pm:--A bearish hammer.
Seems that funds are unwinding positions ahead of last quarter of the year.
Wednesday's candlestick has a long lower shadow which is quite critical to be covered again.
The Sept MAV support line is just 157.05 points away as from todate and there's a danger of bears returning for the cold winter month and the festive seasons ahead.
Having a smaller position as from now on is my strategy to reserve some funds for the pullback and take advantage of the winding-up positions of funds.

Thai Banks disposing stakes.

A tie-up between Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world’s largest bank by market value plans to take a controlling stake in Thailand’s ACL Bank .
ICBC has agreed to pay Bangkok Bank Bt3.55bn ($106m) for its 19.26 per cent stake in ACL, a 15 per cent premium to Tuesday’s closing price, in a deal that values the whole bank at Bt18.29bn.
ACL Bank, one of the smallest banks in Thailand, is 30.6% owned by the Finance Ministry and 19% by Bangkok Bank.
Bangkok Bank, the country's largest bank, has been paying fines to the central bank since last year due to delays in divesting its ACL shares.
The finance minister, told the Financial Times that he was willing to waive the 49 per cent limit on foreign shareholdings in financial institutions in the case of ACL
The Dow at pivot day.
Asian index futures due in 24 hours.
Consumer Confidence Index for September came in at 53.1, which is below the 57.0 that was widely expected.
A disappointing trading day with index still holding strong above the bull pivot despite the dwindling volumes.
As tomorrow is the Pivot Day of Dow Futures,a pullback has already been completed so it's looking for retracement on this very day.