Thursday, June 25, 2009

Stocks booster.

Lower government bond yields and Ben Bernanke's strong defense lift stocks into the close.
Strong demand at the last Treasury debt auction of the week bolstered investor confidence. The government sold $27 billion of seven-year notes, rounding out prior sales of different maturities this week that also came out ahead. The yield on the benchmark ten-year note slid 0.14%, to 3.55%; yields on longer-dated maturities also fell.
Stocks seemed to draw some strength from the lower bond yields, which means cheaper borrowing for both corporations and home buyers.
Tracking the Dow on Thursday,25/06/09.
9:30am:--Mild bearish gap-down.
The final reading for first quarter GDP came in with a 5.5% annualized decline, which is a slight improvement from the 5.7% annualized decline that was previously reported and also below the 5.7% decline that was widely expected.
10:30am:--Retrace to session high with indecision doji.
Fed Chairman Bernanke continues to testify before the house panel.
11:30am:--The ascending soldiers.
Gains in consumer discretionary stocks have enticed buyers to enter the fold and bid the broader market higher.
12:30noon:--A new session high with triple stars spin.
Diversified metals and mining companies are up 4.0%
1:30pm:--The pullback.
The gains upward move by small-caps and mid-caps has been relatively steady. Some volatility had been expected for small-caps ahead of the rebalancing of the Russell 2000 tomorrow.
2:30pm:--Bullish harami.
Despite this afternoon's moderate decline, stocks are still trading with impressive gains. Retailers (+3.3%) remain leaders.
3:30pm:--Graveyard doji with pullback.
In economic data, initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 totaled 627,000, which is more than expected and up from the previous week. Continuing claims crept up to 6.74 million. Though that is still off of its record high, it exceeded forecasts.
4:00pm:--Bullish ascending inverted hammer.
The bulls are making an attempt to penetrate this month MAV line.
The Dow status is still in a bear rally.
Todate candlestick for the month is a bearish spinning doji.
Pairing with last month's candlestick,we are now at a morning star.
Monday's candle is yet to be covered fully and therafter pierce through the MAV resistance.
By month's end if it forms a bullish hammer,the month's ahead might not look good.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Long road to recovery.

The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate near zero Wednesday, and said in a statement that although the U.S. economy remains weak, there are signs of a recovery.
Fed members have been suggesting signs of improvement in individual speeches in recent months.They are predicting like the 'chinese feng-shui' master acting as a comforter for the markets.
Keith Hembre, chief economist at First American Funds said that "They'd be out of step with reality and the data flow if they didn't make that statement."
The Fed reiterated that "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period."
Economists said there's not much the Fed can really do to control the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield and mortgage rates that are pegged to it.
Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands, said the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place.
"If it buys more bonds trying to limit the rate increase, it could fuel the budding inflation psychology pushing up the interest rate," he said.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday (pivot week) 24/06/09.
9:30am:--About 50 points gap-up with inverted hammer follow through.
The OECD's claim that the global recession is close to bottoming out......the good guys.
10:30am:--The first hour setting high with turning point.
The World Bank's decision earlier this week to trim its forecast for the global economy is very contrasting.......the bad guys.So which of these witches are trying to satisfy their agendas?
11:30am:--The 3 black crows.
Durable goods orders for May increased 1.8%, which is far better than the 0.9% decline that was expected.
12:30noon:--Pullback at the opening gap up high.
There were bears and graveyard dojis.Planning to fill up the bullish opening gap.
The FOMC is expected to leave the federal funds target rate unchanged at 0.00% to 0.25%, so most focus will be centered on the policy directive.
1:30pm:--A bearish hammer at the gap-up point.
The bears are waiting for helicopter Ben to open his big mouth and shoot him down.
2:30pm:--Opening gap-up being fully filled and hammered below with further bearish dojis.
The new home sales figures for May showed a weaker-than-expected 0.6% month-over-month decline.
3:30pm:--The low of the day in the last minute injury time with bullish harami.
Stocks are paring their gains after gyrating in the wake of the latest FOMC statement,bulls have already priced in.It's a dirty game,prior results have already being leaked to the benefit of some of the financial cronies.
4:00pm:--Mild technical rebound.
The overall June candlestick is now a bearish inverted hammer.
The follow through next month is going to have extreme turbulence-the doom and gloom.
The old saying"Sell in May and go for your mid-year holiday" herein applies.
We must not be overgeared in the months ahead.
Asian index futures are expiring end of the month and will remain bullish and I would regard this also as a bull trap.
Any Dow index rebound will be shortlived within the area in the upper bear pivot point.