Thursday, November 27, 2008

China's rate cut.

China is scrambling to prop up its economy. The People's Bank of China made a 108-basis-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday after the markets closed, accelerating its recent policy of monetary loosening in the face of slowing exports and industrial production.
Earlier this week, the World Bank cut its forecast for economic growth in China to 7.5%, from 9.2%, though many economists expect an even slower rate of expansion, of anywhere between 2.0% and 7.0%.
China's benchmark rate now stands at 2.52%. The central bank also lowered its reserve requirements by 200 basis points for large banks and by 100 basis points for smaller banks on Wednesday.
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,26/11/08.
Pivot Day of the Dow Index futures.
9:30am:--Nearly 200.0 points gap-down followed by a bullish spin.
President-elect Obama is scheduled to speak at another news conference today at 10:45 AM ET.
10:30am:--Bearish dark cloud.
Three economic reports hit the wires, including a larger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders.
11:30am:--2 Black crows.
There were 529,000 new unemployment claims for the week ended Nov. 22, which was slightly better than the expected reading of 535,000.
12:30pm:--Weak bulls holding on at session high.
October personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month (consensus +0.1%) and personal spending dropped 1.0% (consensus -1.0%). The PCE Deflator, an inflation measure, dropped 0.6%. Finally, October durable goods orders tumbled 6.2% (consensus -3.0%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 4.4% (consensus -1.6%).
1:30pm:--Bearish engulfing.
Just hitting the wires, the number of new home sales in October slipped 5.3% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000. This was worse than the expected reading of 444,000 and the lowest amount of sales since 1991.The November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading was revised down to 55.3 from 57.9. This was below the consensus estimate of 57.5.
2:30pm:--Ascending soldiers.
Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker will head his new economic advisory board.
3:30pm:--Hangman at day's high.
Crude continues to rally, up 7.3% to $54.42 per barrel.
Buying interest in tech and automaker stocks helped reverse sentiment, sending stocks to their fourth consecutive gain.
4:00pm:--Closing at day's high with a hangman.
Caution ahead.
The indicies looks like at its turning point with a hammer warning.Profit taking may come in.
Investors on Wednesday snapped up tech stocks trading near their cheapest levels in five years, and renewed hopes of a General Motors bailout helped investors shrug off data depicting a worsening global economic downturn.
Looks like the speculators are back in action.Market seems to be positive whenever Obama is about to make any speeches.

Monday, November 24, 2008

More bank needs rescue.

The government has agreed to guarantee risky Citigroup debt valued at $306 billion and also pump another $20 billion in cash into the ailing bank, on top of an earlier $25 billion injection that was part of the government's initial round of investments.
Still, many hard questions remain over the Citigroup bailout, including whether or not the nation's former No. 1 bank will need to need even more government money; how many losses will eventually be taken on the $306 billion risky debt being guaranteed by the government; and how much debt of comparably poor quality is held by other banks.
In addition to Citigroup, the first batch of big banks that got capital from the government included JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. (which just bought Wachovia Corp.), Bank of America Corp. (which just bought Merrill Lynch), Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of New York Mellon and State Street.
Citigroup has more than $1.2 trillion in off-balance sheet assets - mostly complicated, structured debt products that it has yet to take actual losses on.
"The definition of 'too big to fail' is changing all the time''
Tracking the Dow On Monday,24/11/08.
9:30am:--A 150.0 points gap-up with an early half gap cover.
The big news this morning is that Citigroup (C) will be receiving government guarantees, liquidity access and capital.
10:30am:-- Dark cloud cover.
Just hitting the wires, October existing home sales fell 3.1% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted annual basis to 4.98 million, which is close to the consensus estimate of 5.00 million.
11:30am:--Shooting Star.
The major indices trade near session highs, benefiting from relief over the Citigroup (C 6.31, +2.54) bailout out and short-covering.
12:30pm:--Bullish engulfing at MAV.
Oil prices have surged 7.6% to $53.73 per barrel and gold prices are up 4.2% $825.30 per ounce.
Shares of Citi are up 59%, with other financial names such as Morgan Stanley (MS 13.50, +3.45) and Merrill Lynch (MER 10.65, +2.31) also getting a nice boost.
1:30pm:--Bearish doji.
Obama is currently participating in a question and answer session.Obama said the country needs a "big" stimulus package, but did not give a specific number.
2:30pm:--Index spike to session high with another bearish engulfing.
Tomorrow, investors will digest the preliminary third quarter GDP report at 8:30 AM ET and November consumer confidence at 10:00 AM ET
3:30pm:--Bullish spike up near end trading day with bearish hangman.
Commodities rallied 5.4% as oil prices spiked 9.1% to $54.48 per barrel and gold rose 4.0% to $823.70 per ounce. The strength in the stock market and a 2.4% decline in the dollar fueled the buying interest.
4:00pm:--An end day shooting star with breakaway bears closing with hangman.
The follow through session may got hanged again.
Monday's candlestick touches this month MAV and started off within the neckline.It's about to get some new breadth hopefully it does not bow down again.
President-elect Obama unveiled his economic team, confirming that New York Fed President Tim Geithner is the Treasury Secretary nomination.It's the sign of his first move in action.