Monday, September 29, 2008

The Big Crash.

The stock market posted its worst one-day percent decline in 21 years after the House of Representatives rejected the $700 billion financial relief plan.
Congress will work toward a new plan to ease the financial market turmoil, although it is not clear how long it might take.
To help improve dollar liquidity, the Fed coordinated with nine central banks across the globe to more than double their swap authorization limits to $620 billion. In addition, the Fed is increasing the size of its Term Auction Facilities. The moves gave a modest improvement to credit markets, only to be overshadowed by the rejection of the financial relief plan.
A huge drop in oil prices was another sign of the economic chaos that investors fear. Light, sweet crude fell $10.52 to settle at $96.36 on the New York Mercantile Exchange as investors feared energy demand would continue to slide amid further economic weakness. And gold, where investors flock when they need a relatively secure investment, rose $23.20 to $911.70 on the Nymex.
It's a financial panic day.
Tracking the Dow On Monday:29/09/08.(Black Monday)


9:30am:--150.0 points crash.
Disappointment over the details of the recently reached agreement between Congress and the White House on the $700 bailout deal and news that several European financial firms were bailed out.
10:30am:--Shooting Stars.
The credit markets remain very tight, with dollar Libor -- which measures what banks charge each other to lend dollars over terms ranging from overnight to one year -- remaining at extremely elevated levels across all terms.
11:30am:--Bearish dojis and hammer.
Energy stocks (-5.8%) are posting the sharpest decline as crude oil futures fall 6.1%. The financial sector is down 4.8% and the tech sector is down 4.7%.
12:30pm:--Hangman.
Stocks drop to session lows. Citigroup (C 20.42, +0.27) had its "AA-/A1+" counterparty credit rating put on CreditWatch negative at Standard & Poor's.
1:30pm:--Graveyard dojis.
The House of Representatives is voting on the $700 financial plan, called the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act.

2:30pm:--Shooting Stars.
The current Emergency Economic Stabilization Act vote tally comes at 207 for the plan, 226 against, with one vote remaining. A total of 218 votes were needed to pass the vote. House members can still change their vote, and as a result the number of yes votes did tick a few points higher.
Democrats voted 141 for, 94 against. Republicans voted 66 for, 132 against.
3:30pm:--Indicies nosedive.
Disappointment over the House's failure to pass the Emergency Stabilization Act of 2008.
4:00pm:--A Black day two weeks earlier than the October crash.

Total wipe off for September with the 52 weeks low being established.
Overseas markets also tumbled, with clear signs that the global financial system is strained. Three European governments bailed out Belgian bank Fortis, the U.K. nationalized mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley and Germany's Hypo Real Estate Holding was rescued by a consortium, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Bailout plans stuck.

A U.S. financial bailout plan remained stuck in legislative limbo, raising investor worries that the economic crisis could deepen. The $700 billion rescue package resolution remain in jeopardy.

Negotiations continued Friday to revive the White House-backed initiative, a day after talks broke down in heated disagreement over the scope and cost of the unprecedented government intervention. The measure would remove billions of dollars in bad mortgages and other risky assets from banks' balance sheets in a bid to calm frenetic financial markets and soothe a jittery public.

Some conservative GOP lawmakers Thursday denounced the plan as an unnecessary federal intrusion into the private sector and proposed a dramatically different scheme under which financial firms with bad assets would pay the Treasury to insure them, rather than sell them outright to the government. It was unclear what form the final proposal would take, though lawmakers from both parties reported making progress on a plan late Friday.

Tracking the Dow on Friday:26/09/08
9:30am:--A 100.0 points gap down with a bottom spin.
The Fed has brokered another deal for JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
10:30am:--Filling back half the gap.
The failure of Washington Mutual is being reported as the largest bank failure in U.S. history.
11:30am:--Pullback to session MAV.
The second quarter GDP indicated the economy expanded at 2.8%, which is below the 3.3% increase previously indicated.
12:30pm:--Bullish Harami.
President Bush just concluded a speech assuring that an agreement to fund financial companies will be reached.
1:30pm:--Bulls holding at day's opening.
Getting for the breakout.Consumer sentiment came in at 70.3, according to the University of Michigan sentiment index. The consensus called for a reading of 70.8.
2:30pm:-- Consolidating at day's opening price.
Political infighting is undermining negotiations for a plan to purchase ailing assets from financial firms. Just yesterday it seemed the plan was nearing approval. Now uncertainty lingers.
3:30pm:--Two ascending soldiers.
With only a few days remaining in the third quarter, economic data pertaining to the second quarter is of little issue anymore. In turn, market participants looked past lowered second quarter real GDP data.The final real GDP reading indicated the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8% from the prior reading of 3.3%
4:00pm:--Bearish engulfing.
A weak open might follow suit before it propell again.
Friday's bullish reversal body has covered part of Monday's candlestick.
To fully recover another 200.0 odd points before month's end is a possibility as it is also the pivot month of the Dow Futures.
Futhermore most of the futures market in Asia are due for expiry this month end.
Any sucess in the rescue deal package can bring the market another lift-off.