Friday, November 5, 2010

The hidden agenda of currency dispute.

The Obama administration says that China's undervalued currency, the yuan, contributes to strains in the global economy because it gives Beijing an unfair trade boost by making Chinese goods cheaper in the U.S. and elsewhere. Meanwhile, emerging economies like Brazil blame both the U.S. and China for keeping their currencies weak.
At the heart of the problem is the huge gap between the United States, which buys far more than it sells to the rest of the world, and developing countries, such as China, which are running big trade surpluses.
Southeast Asia, made up of export-reliant nations are now giggling at their high currency value which have made their goods less competitive. Some governments have expressed concern that lower U.S. interest rates will result in more money flooding into their markets seeking higher returns, pushing up exchange rates and hurting exports by making their goods more expensive. Expectations of the Fed's move also contributed to weakening the U.S. dollar, adding to global currency tensions.
Tracking the Dow,Friday 5th November 2010.
Today is the Diwali Festival(Deepavali),Indian New Year celebration.

9:30am:--Bearish 20.0 points gap down opener.A surprising surge in October nonfarm payrolls announced.
10:30am:--A dragonfly doji in a bullish pair.After pulling back from earlier high,a second technical rebound.
11:30am:--The Republicans win control of the House of Representatives and the Federal Reserve announce it would buy $600 billion in additional bonds.Graveyard doji and a bearish engulfing.
12:30noon:--A morning session low being set and bullish engulfing lifted a rebound to the MAV resistance line.
1:30pm:--Weak bull at the MAV resistance,three bearish crows swiped on the bulls.
2:30pm:--Another new low of the day,followed by a technical rebound with inverted bullish hammer.
3:30pm:--Attempt to rebound to the MAV resistance failed.Profit-takers are on hand.
4:00pm:--A last minute spike up dressing,very fictitiuos.
U.S. stocks rose slightly, extending their climb to fresh two-year highs as investors were encouraged by a report of stronger-than-expected job growth for October.
A spinning top was formed on Friday and any pullback will be within Thursday upper half body candlestick.
The Federal Reserve is poised to allow healthy banks to increase dividend payments for the first time since the financial crisis.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Hot money and currency war.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in remarks at a Boston Fed conference that the central bank may expand asset purchases or change the language in its statement, while saying “nonconventional policies” have costs and limitations. “There would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action,” Bernanke said.
The central bank will release on Oct. 20 its Beige Book survey of regional Fed banks. Last month, the report found the economic rebound showed signs of slowing. Minutes of the Fed’s September meeting released on Oct. 12 indicated that policy makers were poised to take more easing steps “before long.”
The U.S. Treasury Department said it will delay a report on international currencies, including China’s yuan, while citing progress in the acceleration of the pace of the yuan’s rise.
The yuan advanced 0.5 percent this week and touched 6.6406, the strongest level since the central bank unified official and market exchange rates at the end of 1993.
The report will be delayed until after the meetings of the Group of 20 nations in the coming weeks, according to a statement from the Treasury.
The greenback has tumbled 5 percent against the yen since Sept. 15, when Japan acknowledged intervening in the market by selling the currency to prevent its strength from undermining the nation’s export-dependent economy.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),quoted that "There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon.
"Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery," he said.
Unilateral action by one central bank can, therefore, set off or fuel disputes in other parts of the world. Although America sees itself as a victim of global currency intervention, many people argue that its own policies are the cause.
Meanwhile short-term capital flows(hot-money) are disturbing emerging economies and it can be a catastrophe.The US is the epicentre, causing chaos over the rest of the world by printing cheap money.
Tracking the Friday's Dow,(Index Futures Expiry Day)
Asian Index Futures expiry,29/10/10.Pre-rollover contracts,22/10/10

09:30am:--A bullish 40.0 points gap-up with a bearish dark cloud cover.
10:30am:--Index nosedived to session low,bullish hammering out the low.
11:30am:--Rebound to MAV resistance line,graveyard doji confirmation.
12:30n00n:--After pulling back to the bear pivot support,a rebound at this moment failed to kiss the MAV resistance line.Hangman checkmate.
1:30pm:--A second attempt to test the resistance fall short of target.Graveyard doji again.
2:30pm:--Another rebound that failed the MAV resistance test.
3:30pm:--Fallback to bear pivot support line,morning star followed.
4:00pm:--A third MAV resistance attempt,complete failure.Bears overwhelmed the bulls in today's tug of war.
Two bearish dojis,covering back the whole of Wednesday's candlestick body greeted the Index/options futures expiry day.
On the whole the three pairs are still hoovering above the bull pivot support and it's still a bullish play.
Friday's early bulls cheered the market after a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to another round of monetary easing from the central bank.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell in October thus giving the bears a bigger leeway to find a reason to sell the market.