Wednesday, April 8, 2009

The Fed's fear.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting expressed concern about downside risks to an outlook for activity that was already weak.
Federal Reserve officials feared the U.S. economy might fall into a self-reinforcing cycle of rising unemployment and slumping business and consumer spending, making credit tighter in a weak financial system.
The outlook prompted the Federal Open Market Committee in a unanimous vote to boost its open-market purchases of bonds by $1.15 trillion, continuing its unprecedented increase in money supplied to the economy. The U.S. central bank has used its own balance sheet to provide financing for markets in commercial paper, asset-backed securities and mortgage bonds, markets it deems critical for financial stability and economic recovery.
Their projections showed “the unemployment rate rising more steeply into early next year,” the minutes said. Policy makers expected further job cuts “though perhaps at a gradually diminishing rate.”
Tracking the Dow on Wednesday,08/04/09
9:30am:--Mild gap-up of 30.0 points.
The absence of any new headline or economic release.
10:30am:--Gap fully covered.
An inverted bullish hammer.The Treasury plans to extend bailout funds to struggling life insurance companies, which is helping lift shares of beaten down companies like Lincoln National (LNC) and Hartford (HIG).
11:30am:--Resistance line broken.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is currently holding an open meeting to discuss possible short sale restrictions.The first recommended approach to regulate short selling uses a short sale price test approach, while the second uses circuit breakers.
12:30 noon:--Bullish spike up.
Earnings season began unceremoniously last evening when Dow component Alcoa (AA 7.78, -0.01) reported a deeper-than-expected loss. The shares are currently trading in mixed fashion.
1:30pm:--The height with a shooting star.
Just hitting news wires, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 meeting indicate that the committee members felt that as the U.S. economy was deteriorating, foreign activity was softening, according to Reuters.
2:30pm:--Bearish spike to MAV line.
Financials have been a focus of the recent selling effort.
3:30pm:--The days low followed by ascending soldiers.
Despite the strength of insurers, the financial sector, as a whole, lagged the broader market for virtually the entire session.
4:00pm:--A small bullish hammer.
Shorties are again hitting the market.
The support line has been breached and rebounded.This pair of candlestick is the morning star.The other half-naked body will be covered again very soon.
Insurance and technology shares led the market higher in a volatile day Wednesday, breaking a two-day slide. But a dim view of the economy from the Federal Reserve and jitters over looming earnings reports kept buyers in check.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

The mini-rally.

Where's the epicentre?
Mark-to-market accounting rules, the long-despised bogeyman keeping banks' toxic assets from being sold, were altered substantially, kickstarting the Wall Street rally.
The Group of 20 world economic summit yielded a $20 billion pledge to resuscitate the global economy.
Auto sales numbers, while still dauntingly low, beat expectations and analysts foresee more lending to get the sales pace accelerated.
Add some stabilizing in housing numbers and improvement in investor sentiment to the mix and you had both technicians and analysts of fundamentals cheering on the surge that has welcomed in the second quarter.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,03/04/09 (10 market days to Dow Expiry)
9:30am:--An opening bearish doji.
Upper shadow shorter than bottom.The play for today.
Unemployment zoomed to 8.5 percent last month, the highest in a quarter-century, as employers axed 663,000 more workers and pushed the nation's jobless ranks past 13 million.
10:30am:--Lower shadow penetrated & below.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank will do everything it can to stabilize banks.
11:30am:--Inverted bullish hammer from low.
Financial stocks rose after Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said the Fed will use "all of its tools" to stabilize markets.
12:30noon:--The usual noon session slowdown to around MAV level.
It's hoovering in the bull county with a graveyard doji looking for pullback.
1:30pm:--The bullish harami.
Report from the Institute for Supply Management showed the U.S. services sector shrank for the sixth straight month in March as recession-weary consumers tightened their belts.
2:30pm:--The shooting star.
Strong movers:-Magna International Inc., up $4.48 at $33.70
-Kimco Realty Corp., up $1.91 at $9.40
-Dow Chemical Co., up $1.06 at $11
3:30pm:--Pullback to MAV with a dragonfly doji.
4:00pm:--Artificially spike up top close positive.
Financial stocks were the last minute Benarnke's tool in this spike.
Research in Motion (RIMM) posted robust fourth-quarter results and lifted the tech stocks.
The Hammer,the April Fool Trap.
Despite all the rotten economic figures,the indicies still climb which by right be reflective of a pullback.
As the first quarter earnings season begins, a debate rages over whether stocks will be able to rally on or instead roll over on weak corporate profits and dismal economic news.
In the coming week, first quarter earnings kicks off with a report form Alcoa [AA 8.17 -0.01 (-0.12%) ] on Tuesday. A handful of other reports are due during the week, including Bed, Bath and Beyond [BBBY 27.60 0.95 (+3.56%) ]Tuesday, and Constellation Brands [STZ 12.20 0.02 (+0.16%) ]and Family Dollar [FDO 31.90 -0.23 (-0.72%) ]Wednesday. Chevron [CVX 70.48 0.17 (+0.24%) ]gives an interim update on Thursday.