Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The treasury's disappointment.

Investors dumped stocks after Treasury Secretary Geithner failed to deliver the specifics that investors sought from Treasury's financial rescue plan.
Treasury failed to provide clarity on how it will handle the toxic assets that are driving losses and write-downs on bank balance sheets. Recognition that this part of the plan has yet to be finalized creates an impression that Geithner still doesn't have a complete solution to the situation.
Disappointment in Treasury's plan left market participants disinterested in the Senate's $838 billion economic stimulus bill. The bill was passed midday, but it has been relegated since it aims to drive long-term economic growth, rather than provide a short-term lift.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to the Financial Services Committee provided some positive points, but did little to ease selling pressure. He stated extraordinary programs have improved market conditions and eased strains. He also indicated the U.S. remains well capitalized and the Fed will be able to offset any losses through eventual gains on asset sales.
Tracking the Dow On Tuesday,10/02/09
9:30am:--A 80.00 points gap down.
Awaiting the Senate's final vote for the economic stimulus plan, which is expected today.
10:30am:--No sign of gap filling,session low with bearish inverted hammer.
Financial stocks are leading the broader market lower.
11:30am:--A bearish marubozu and spinning bottom.
Enthusiasm for Treasury's plan has dwindled since the larger themes of the plan have leaked. Private and public funds are expected to help sop up bad assets, while existing lending facilities are to be expanded, and additional steps will be taken to stem home foreclosures.
12:30noon:--Hoovering at morning session low with a long bearish candlestick.
The bill passed as the Commerce Department reported wholesale inventories fell a more-than-expected 1.4% during December. The data marked the fourth straight monthly decline.
1:30pm:--Mild technical rebound with a shooting star.
The mood among market participants remains dour.Treasury failed to deliver the specifics sought by market participants in a bank recovery plan. Stocks continue to trade near session lows.
2:30pm:--Another bottom of the day with a bullish hammer .
Stocks fall to session lows as Fed Chairman Bernanke participates in a question and answer session with the House Financial Services Committee.
3:30pm:--The bottom of the day completed.
Bernanke said that all banks can participate in lending programs, not just those that are "too big to fail." He also said that Treasury Secretary Geithner should bring back "price discovery."
4:00pm:--Closing recovery.
A triple bottom noticed,a strong short-covering rebound is imminent.
Tuesday's candle is a house-cleaner wiping off the previous day's gains.
Next Friday 20th is the Dow Index Expiry Day.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

The changing of guards.

Friday marked an end to the stock market's run under the administration of President George W. Bush.
By contrast, under his predecessor, William Clinton, the S&P tripled, gaining more than $9 trillion. Bush is the first president since Richard M. Nixon to preside over a net fall in stocks during his term.
So with the new Barack Obama's administration taking over the wheel,Stocks should get a boost from enthusiasm about the inauguration.
Tracking the Dow on Friday,16/01/09.
Third Friday---Dow Futures Expiry Day.

9:30am:--A mild gap-up & shooting star,
Citigroup Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $1.72 per share, $0.41 worse than the First Call consensus of ($1.31).
10:30am:--Early gap-up fully filled,a rebound with double shooting stars at near top.
JP Morgan Chase announces it has extended its mortgage modification efforts to the investor-owned loans that it services (JPM) 23.04 -1.30
11:30am:--Bearish engulfing harami.
Crude oil moves back into negative territory after trading as high as $36.73; now off 15 cents to $35.25 .
12:30 noon:--Morning session closes at low with an inverted bullish hammer.
S&P affirms rating on Bank Of America; outlook negative (BAC) 7.51 -0.81
1:30pm:---Bullish spike up heading towards MAV.
Chrysler Financial confirms access to $1.5 bln in loans from the Treasury Department .
2:30pm:--Sideways movement at the MAV.
Washington Banking Co. receives $26.38 million investment under U.S. Treasury's Capital Purchase Program (WBCO) 7.18 -0.58 :
3:30pm:--Bulls holding strongly above the MAV zone.
Moody's places Citigroup's ratings (snr at A2 and Prime-1) under review for possible downgrade (C) 3.76 -0.07
4:00pm:--Bearish hammer unwinding within the bull's body.
Texas Capital issues $75 mln of preferred stock and warrants under the U.S. Treasury's Capital Purchase Program (TCBI) 11.11 -0.16 .
The hammering has completed right till the day of the Dow Index Futres expiry.The start of new season again.The bulls are waiting for another rampage.
Stocks rose on Friday on strength in the energy sector and companies that hold up well in recessions, while reassuring comments from Britain's Barclays late in the day helped financials cut losses that had driven the market lower earlier.